Short Range Is The New Long Game: North Korea’s Most Recent Missile Test
North Korea’s most recent missile test in early May 2019 has raised quite a few eyebrows, and not just for the diplomatic challenge it presents to the US. It is a strategic threat that possibly is much higher than can be gleaned upon first glance. With the sea faring dominance and force projection capabilities of the modern Carrier Strike Group (CSG), the United States Navy has long considered itself the assurance of the dominance of the US in affairs abroad- a posture built upon hubris, but one that has served the US interests’ well over since WWII. A force projection challenge to other nations, and one that has been taken for granted over the years while strategic counters to the CSG have been sought.
Of those solutions, the land or air based short range missile appears to be the most lethal threat.
Telegraphing this intent has been several strategic planners of both Russia and China, with a test bed of fielding new equipment to rouge nations who will further their development. After all, it was a Chinese Admiral who claimed early this year that the US Navy could be defeated by sinking two Carriers– and to suggest that such a thing could not be done is an admission of defeat. It is indeed within the realm of possibilities, and very well could happen given the right set of circumstances. But no theory is worth talking about without experimentation, and expounding upon a larger strategic goal absent a workable plan would be foolish. And the Chinese are anything but.
Enter North Korea.
During the height of the Korean missile crisis in late 2017, three CSGs were deployed to the region as a show of force. The problem was and remains twofold; you’ve now created a target rich environment and a predictable pattern by which you operate. Having that many boats in one spot is dangerous given the documented electronic warfare capabilities of the Chinese and the Russians with regard to shipboard navigation systems. The strategic counter would be to create a situation that incurs a response- and then on the attack launch a series of short range missiles designed to defeat US counter battery systems.
On the surface, it would appear North Korea has nothing to gain from any missile test, which would assuredly (and predictably) lead to more sanctions and economic strain on the nation already suffering from economic woes and mass famine. But that said they would greatly benefit from proof of concept- a land based deterrent to the symbol of Western omnipotence. And given that experts in the technology can reasonably conclude the weapons tested are Russian in origin, it doesn’t take much to figure out that’s exactly what’s happening.
What we know about the weapon based upon open source intelligence (OSINT) is that it is based on the SS-26 Iskander, a short range missile designed to be fielded by heavy truck to support regional operations. While the original development of the weapon was intended to be used against ground forces’ targets, the weapon could easily be modified (and modernized) to suit a land based counter-CSG role. At its current known speed, in excess of Mach 5, the US Patriot counter battery system is outmatched. It is also likely that some form of composite Radar Absorbent Material (RAM) has been implemented into the newest design, as a report from South Korea indicates that Aegis systems could not track the North Korean missile after launch. If confirmed, it would be one more indication of the threat level posed by these weapons.
Enter Iran.
Iran has long since been an ally of Russian interests, fielding mostly Russian weapons and equipment while also developing upgrades in their own missile delivery systems, mostly propelled by on-the-job research done by their proxy, Hezbollah. Their own operations recently have been centered around understanding just how many missiles the Raytheon-built Iron Dome system can withstand, a system very similar to our own naval threat defense systems. Iran’s homegrown (based on Russian systems) Shahab system is centered around key upgrades to defeating an Iron Dome-type system, posing a very real threat to the US CSG. As of this writing, the USS Abraham Lincoln is deployed to the Arabian Peninsula as a deterrent against the rapidly growing Iranian aggression.
Timing speaks volumes. The North Korean test should be viewed as a telegraphing of capability already in the hands of Iran as well as North Korea, and a warning of the waning threat the CSG actually poses. Whether that threat is heeded or not is another story entirely.
Enter Cuba.
Last November I suggested that Russian missiles will once more be placed on Cuban soil, based on remarks made by a retired Russian General. While everyone defaults to thinking in regards to strategic weapons, and they should, the imminent threat posed by a land-based anti-Naval weapon is very real and appears to be confirmed. Couple that with the capability for this weapon to carry low yield nuclear warheads, parking those right to our south presents a threat with little to no reaction time- or warning. With the growing ties both Russia and China seek in South and Central America while looking to remove us from the economic table, it might be likely that the short range ballistic missile tested by North Korea is the new strategic weapon to be feared.
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Interesting NC Scout. It would be educational to us all for the folks who monitor AP to “game plan” a scenario or two of what could happen.
As an example: An axis of Cuba, iran, and NK is formed with Russia being the supplier of knowledge, technology, and supplies for an all out attack within their (Axis) area.
What could/would that scenario look like? Who would benefit? Will China be part of this scenario?
Interesting discussion.
Typically, these counter-measures to Iron Dome or anti-ship missile defense involving defeating the targeting radar in some way. Chinese sunburst and silkworm missiles are rumored to have terminal evasion: the missile starts snaking as it comes over the radar horizon to defeat the tracking radar of our CIWS or RAMs. We have ship-based EW systems that try to beat the targeting radar of these missiles. A simple way of beating countermeasures is to just overwhelm them. If you fire a lot of antiship missiles at a carrier, enough are bound to get through. The other threat is tactical nukes (MIRVs) from short-range ballistic missiles. They could use both against a carrier battle group. Their submarines are yet another threat. We are very vulnerable in their waters and the waters of their allies.
Are we gonna talk about the “test” long range missile we launched from a sub a few minutes after theirs in response?
Have sanctions been placed on Norh Korea? I haven’t heard of any. Is this because it would show President Trump in a good light or because there has been none. Is this a case where the test was coordinated with the state department so that the capabilities would be exposed so that we can counter them in the event that Iran uses these missiles against us.
Cuba is definitely open to anything as it’s economic situation declines. It can’t even feed its people since the fall of Venezuela. It will go to the highest non American bidder.
It’s military is laughable as seen in Grenada and even more recently in Venezuela with its “crack commandos”. But the location, as you said, is everything for launches.
It could also be a logistical staging area because some, like China, lack in that area. They don’t have the ability to move logistically so they need more staging, fueling and resupply areas.
Speaking of Venezuela not only is the oil important but the location for the above mentioned logistics is too. It provides both a sea and air launch but also the possibility of a land bridge access. That’s why so many are snooping around wanting access to it. It’s strategic and can make money.
“It could also be a logistical staging area because some, like China, lack in that area.”
This.
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