THE 2020 VIRGINIA SHOWDOWN

The 2020 Virginia Showdown

Rolling into 2020, all eyes are on Virginia following Governor Ralph Northam’s declared intention to pass onerous new gun control laws that could mandate the forced confiscation of common semi-automatic firearms which have been legal for Virginians to own for more than a century, ever since their invention. The first date in the coming showdown to be aware of is Monday, January 20th, when the Virginia Citizens Defense League, a pro-Second Amendment group, is organizing a “Lobby Day” rally to be held at the state capitol to oppose these new gun control laws. It’s estimated that thousands of Virginians will attend the VCDL rally, many arriving in buses from all over the commonwealth.

In response to Northam’s plans, 90% of Virginia’s counties and many of its independent cities have declared themselves to be “second amendment sanctuaries.” After receiving vociferous pushback, Northam has recently stepped away from promising the outright confiscation of currently owned semi-auto weapons, and he is instead now demanding that gun owners register “grandfathered” weapons with the state government. Based on recent experiences in New York, Connecticut and other states that mandated registration, it’s assumed that very few Virginians will comply, instantly turning hundreds of thousands of otherwise law-abiding citizens into paper felons.

What will Northam’s response be to mass defiance of his gun control edicts? Common investigative tools could easily be used to locate non-compliant Virginians and arrest them on felony gun charges. At least some gun confiscation raids would inevitably lead to armed resistance, beginning a cycle of action and reaction that could, over time, grow into a low-intensity guerrilla conflict or a “dirty civil war.”

How plausible is this unwanted outcome? And what forms might a civil war over gun rights take? In certain respects we are in uncharted waters, because there are some new and unique variables in the known and studied civil war and counter-insurgency equations that are far out of line with available historical precedents. Chief among them: in all of history there has never been a civil war where, at the outset of hostilities, the resisting indigenous population was armed to the teeth with rifles capable of making 500 to 1,000 yard aimed precision shots. Never.

On average, approximately 64,000 people live in each of Virginia’s 133 counties and independent cities and towns, average land area 324 square miles. Measured another way, about 7,000 people live in each of Virginia’s 1,218 postal zip codes, average land area 42 square miles. About 250,000 Virginia state hunting license are issued each year, a small fraction of the total number of firearm owners. Now this is just a guess, but I’d bet that there are at least a hundred riflemen in every Virginia zip code capable of walking out their front door in the next five minutes, and making a rested 500 yard aimed precision shot. (For non-shooters, that means these marksmen can hit the man-size target they are aiming at.) And many of these marksmen are hunters and outdoorsmen who know their regional woods and forests like the backs of their hands.

But before any gun confiscation raids take place in Virginia, Northam’s new laws will be challenged in the courts, and, given the extremely dire potential unintended consequences, these legal challenges will quickly rise to the Supreme Court. The odds of the SCOTUS coming down on the side of confiscating millions of firearms that were legal and available for a century-plus until this year is practically nil. If the SCOTUS green-lighted Northam’s gun confiscation plans, nullifying the Second Amendment, they would virtually be declaring war on tens of millions of constitution-believing American citizens, igniting Civil War Two. Given this grim reality, and with the present SCOTUS, it’s almost inconceivable that Virginia laws permitting mass gun confiscation would be declared constitutional. Mandatory registration laws would be a more complicated issue. Creating hundreds of thousands of paper felons from those who refuse to register their firearms could simply lead to a multi-step means of confiscation via investigation, arrest, prosecution and imprisonment.

But even if the Virginia governor was given the go-ahead by the SCOTUS, and even if the present demographic shift in Virginia (based on mass immigration) continues to favor the Democrats in future elections, if any significant percentage of Virginians consider gun confiscation raids to be unconstitutional and worth resisting, make no mistake, there will be armed resistance. Many millions of Americans, including Virginians, consider mandatory gun registration (much less confiscation!) to be a necessary first step on the path to socialist tyranny, boxcars, gulags, and worse. If and when widespread gun confiscation begins, even under the cover of so-called “red flag” laws, or following the refusal of Virginians to comply with gun registration mandates, there will be a civil war.

The geography and topography of much of Virginia means that convoys of police cars and SUVs on gun confiscation missions will be forced to travel through labyrinthine terrain on their way to and from their objectives. After a few bloody (and all-too predictable) gun raid outcomes along the lines of Ruby Ridge or Waco, at least some Virginians will not simply wait for another law enforcement (LE) convoy to arrive unmolested on their street for the next set-piece gun confiscation raid. These LE convoys will be readily identifiable far in advance of their gun raid objectives, and in the event that this constitutional struggle over the Second Amendment turns kinetic, these confiscation convoys will be taken under accurate long-range fire from hidden marksmen on the way to or returning from their objectives.

In addition, there are not enough law enforcement helicopters in Virginia to protect these hypothetical columns of police cars and SUVs heading out to confiscate weapons that were perfectly legal for Virginians to own until now. The day that state LE helicopters are used to support gun raids, these helicopters, their bases and their supporting elements will become targets.

If all 7,500 members of the Virginia National Guard were ordered by Governor Northam to support the 2,100 Virginia State Police on these confiscation raids, they would drag their feet and make enough deliberate noise in their preparations and movements that they will have little or no effect. To put the maximum numbers of hypothetically available gun confiscators into perspective, remember that Virginia has a population of 8.5 million people spread over 43,000 square miles. Also consider that the deployment of Virginia National Guard troops to support state police gun raids is by no means certain. Read The Virginia Debacle, Summarized (And Why You Should Buy More Guns) by Michael Z. Williamson to learn why this is so.

And in my humble opinion, there is no way in hell that President Donald J. Trump will commit political suicide by sending federal forces to Virginia to back up Northam’s unconstitutional gun confiscation schemes, (no matter what the SCOTUS declares), in direct defiance of the passionate will of his base. The Virginia State Police will be on their own to carry out Northam’s orders, with minimal assistance from the Virginia National Guard and local LE. (On the other hand, if Trump is replaced in the White House in 2021 by a Democrat, and the Democrats somehow manage to carry both houses of congress, then all bets are off.)

But just for the sake of discussion, let’s assume that Northam attempted to enforce his gun confiscation and/or mandatory registration laws, and an armed resistance began. How have previous modern insurgencies fared against government forces? Please consider that from the 1980s until today, the full might of the Soviet and later the U.S. military has not been able to subdue a few thousand rag-tag Taliban fighters in Afghanistan, not even when the counter-insurgency troops were operating from secure fire bases located far away from their homes and families. During a civil war in Virginia, the homes and families of the gun confiscators will be scattered among those whose guns they will be tasked with confiscating. Not a pretty picture to contemplate, particularly in an era when doxing can readily be used as a weapon to identify and “out” perceived enemies. And if resistors are afraid to post the information on the internet, just picture leaflets scattered around a neighborhood identifying the gun confiscators. This would happen. Count on it.

It’s rightly assumed that Switzerland has never been invaded by an aggressive hostile neighbor due to its long historical tradition of nearly all Swiss men retaining their military-issue battle rifles in their homes for their entire lives following their brief stints in the military reserves. More rarely considered is the fact that Switzerland has also never suffered a tyrant who harshly ruled against the will of the people or tried to disarm them. (Swiss gun laws are changing now for a variety of reasons, but the point remains.)

Just visit Governor Northam’s Twitter account and you will see that 99% of the comments on any post that he makes are tearing him to shreds with thinly veiled threats. When @GovernorVA posts a Merry Christmas message, he receives an unending torrent of angry insults and warnings in return. Online, nobody is letting Northam forget his history of appearing in blackface next to a pal in KKK robes, or that “Coonman” was his college nickname. And nobody is forgetting his recent statements on post-birth baby killing. Nonetheless, he is currently the duly-elected governor of the Commonwealth of Virginia.

But an important point to consider is that it doesn’t really matter if 51% or 90% of Virginia gun owners roll over and comply with Northam’s gun confiscation and/or registration laws. If even a few percent dig in their heels and privately say “hell no,” that will be enough to lead to violence. To millions of Americans, gun registration and confiscation are simply steps on the path to tyranny and, in many historical examples, eventual genocide. At least tens of thousands of Virginians will refuse to take those first steps, no matter what the law demands of them.

Following inevitably bloody gun confiscation raids, what will matter is not state-wide polling, but the individual deer hunter or sporting marksman who decides to go out on his own with his Remington or Winchester. He will hear about the latest local gun raid, and he will know the exact choke point surrounded by thick cover through which the convoy of LE police cars and SUVs will need to drive on its egress. At first, armed resistance might take the form of warning shots into engines or tires. The armed resistor will then disappear into the landscape, after caching his rifle and picking up his fishing rod for cover. Unit size: one man. No comms, no “chatter.”

Next, the gun confiscators will begin to receive incoming pot-shots on their perimeter security elements while they are conducting suburban raids. The shooter will be back in bed before the gun raiders even know what happened. Step by step, action begetting reaction, a low intensity insurgency will grow and spread.

Consider the panic and mayhem unleashed in California a few years ago by just one angry villain conducting his own private war:

Christopher Dorner shootings and manhunt (from Wikipedia)

Christopher Jordan Dorner (1979-2013) was a Los Angeles police officer who, beginning on February 3, 2013, committed a series of shootings in Orange, Los Angeles, and Riverside County, California. The victims were police and civilians, including police families. Dorner killed four people and wounded three others. The rampage ended on February 12, 2013, when Dorner died during a standoff with San Bernardino County Sheriff’s Deputies after a shootout at a cabin in the San Bernardino Mountains. A manifesto reportedly posted by Dorner on Facebook declared “unconventional and asymmetric warfare” upon the Los Angeles Police Department (LAPD), their families, and their associates, unless the LAPD admitted publicly he was fired in retaliation for reporting excessive force. In two separate incidents during the manhunt, police shot at three civilians unrelated to Dorner, mistaking their pickup trucks for the vehicle being driven by Dorner. One of the civilians was hit by the police gunfire, another was wounded by shattered glass, and a third individual was injured when police rammed his vehicle and opened fire.

A Virginia insurgency might begin with random single actors, then grow into squad-size actions undertaken by friends and relatives sharing a strong pre-existing bond of trust, before growing into a full-blown guerrilla war.

I always come back to what a few hundred “active IRA” in Northern Ireland managed over three decades against the power of the British military, including countless checkpoints, undercover intelligence units, widespread hidden cameras, off-the-leash SAS teams, “false-flag” discrediting operations, military helicopters and so on. In time, IRA-sympathizing Catholics left their back fences and doors unlocked so that IRA men on the run could scramble inside and hop into a bed, while their guns were concealed under the floorboards by the homeowners. Even if the British troops searched house by house up and down the street, they’d find nothing, but they would mightily anger the locals by brutally ransacking their homes. This kind of local support for resistors would evolve on its own during a dirty civil war in Virginia. (And also consider that Northern Ireland has one-eight the land area and one quarter the population of Virginia.)

Outnumbered a hundred to one by the British Army, this relative handful of active IRA tied down entire divisions for thirty years, but eventually the British gave up, signed a peace deal in 1998, and left. (And although it was required by the peace agreement, the IRA never disarmed.) And let’s not forget that a few thousand sandal-clad Taliban armed with rusty iron-sighted weapons, cell phones and walkie-talkies have fought the U.S. military to a standstill—and that is when our troops hold the major advantage of fighting from secure bases, and these troops’ families do not share neighborhoods with their enemies.

I’m simply not aware of any previous civil war where tens of thousands of aggrieved citizens began the struggle armed with rifles capable of making 500 yard and greater precision shots. This is an equation changer. Gun raids will not be possible for long if law enforcement convoys are taken under accurate fire en-route to and from gun confiscation operations, and roadside car-search checkpoint duty becomes a suicide mission. Never forget what happened to the British redcoats on the famous 1775 gun confiscation raids at Concord and Lexington, and perhaps more importantly, remember what happened to them during their retreat to Boston.

Make no mistake: gun confiscation laws, as well as laws making paper felons out of those who refuse to register their now-legal weapons (in order to expedite their future confiscation) will lead to armed resistance.

Next: On To Richmond!

Related Reading:

Virginia Checkpoints: What Could Possibly Go Wrong?

Bracken: What I Saw At The Coup

When the Music Stops: How America’s Cities May Explode in Violence

The CW2 Cube: Mapping the Meta-Terrain of CW2

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About the Author: Matt Bracken

Old frogman, sailor, boat builder, novelist and essayist. Matthew Bracken was born in Baltimore, Maryland in 1957, and attended the University of Virginia, where he received a BA in Russian Studies and was commissioned as a naval officer in 1979. Later in that year he graduated from Basic Underwater Demolition/SEAL training, and in 1983 he led a Naval Special Warfare detachment to Beirut, Lebanon. Since then he’s been a welder, boat builder, charter captain, ocean sailor, essayist and novelist. He lives in North Florida. Links to many of Matt’s short stories and essays may be found at EnemiesForeignAndDomestic.com, along with excerpts from his five novels: the Enemies Foreign and Domestic series, Castigo Cay and The Cliffs of Zerhoun. His essays and short stories can be found in “The Bracken Collection: Essays and Short Fiction 2010 to 2019”. All of his short stories and essays may be reproduced on the internet, in part or in whole, as long as proper attribution is given, and they are not sold for profit without the permission of the author.

51 Comments

  1. THE 2020 VIRGINIA SHOWDOWN | NCRenegade January 2, 2020 at 13:38

    […] Read the whole Article Here… […]

  2. Anonymous January 2, 2020 at 13:55

    4.5

  3. livinintherealworld January 2, 2020 at 15:59

    In other words Matt; you don’t know what the fuck is going to happen and you should just shut the fuck up. Go sand your boat or something.

  4. VoorTrekker January 2, 2020 at 16:04

    Viet Nam, Arghanistan, Somalia, Central America; we were not supposed to “win.” The insolence of deplorable “undesirables,” will breed the absolute victory plans of the Deep State. Count on it, they’ll have no R.O.E. on us.

  5. MAL January 2, 2020 at 16:21

    On April 19, 1775 colonists made use of cover against the Redcoats accustomed to open field formations. Being fully ambidextrous is the modern way to make optimal use of cover.

  6. warddorrity January 2, 2020 at 16:47

    Now you just have to ask yourself: “What would Michael Collins do?”

  7. Stryker January 2, 2020 at 16:48

    With all due respects, Mr Bracken I am afraid you are placing too much confidence in Mr Trump and SCOTUS to uphold the Constitution.

  8. Eric Cobb January 2, 2020 at 16:52

    Excellent essay Matt…

    I believe that this is actually what they want. I know, it sounds insane, but I believe that the left thinks that, Like Goebbels said, “If you tell a lie big enough and keep repeating it, people will eventually come to believe it.”

    While this may be true, and seems especially so of those on the left, those of us who have not allowed our hatred to erode our ability to reason understand that if the state government of Virginia starts down this path, it isn’t going to go as they hope or believe it will. I believe it will further galvanize the determination of those unwilling to give up their guns. If I am right, it is going to bring a fight to them that they never dreamed possible.

    I truly hope it doesn’t come to that, but the left seems hell bent on starting a war, and if they do, I don’t think they can win.

  9. Irish-7 January 2, 2020 at 17:18

    One of my first thoughts as this situation develops was “The Bundy Standoff”. If I recall correctly, people came from all over to support the locals fighting Uncle Sam. Won’t the same thing happen in Virginia?

  10. Anonymous January 2, 2020 at 17:39

    5

  11. Rich January 2, 2020 at 18:22

    Depending on Federal Judges to Protect Your Gun Rights Is a Bad Plan.
    This is a really bad strategy.
    At its core, the Second Amendment exists as a limit on federal authority. When you sue in federal court, you do so in the hope that the federal government will limit itself.
    Remember, federal courts operate as part of the federal government, and federal judges are nothing more than politically connected lawyers drawing federal paychecks. When we keep these facts in mind, it becomes pretty obvious we shouldn’t count on federal courts to limit federal power, and uphold or preserve the Second Amendment.
    James Madison gave us the blueprint. When the federal government commits unwarrantable acts, the Father of the Constitution didn’t say “file a lawsuit in federal court.” Madison advised a refusal to cooperate with officers of the union. Don’t depend on politically connected lawyers to protect your right to keep and bear arms.
    10th amendment center

  12. Rich January 2, 2020 at 18:27

    If you are one that believes the Supreme Court is the final arbiter of what is lawful and constitutional, then you have believed a lie and a myth that Jefferson warned about. The States still retain their rights to this day to defy the federal judiciary, which has become an oligarcy. We just need strong statesmen as governors and legislatures to make that stand!

    In writing to William Jarvis, Jefferson said, “You seem . . . to consider the judges as the ultimate arbiters of all constitutional questions; a very dangerous doctrine indeed, and one which would place us under the despotism of an oligarchy.”

    The germ of dissolution of our federal government is in the constitution of the federal Judiciary; an irresponsible body (for impeachment is scarcely a scare-crow) working like gravity by night and by day, gaining a little today and a little tomorrow, and advancing its noiseless step like a thief, over the field of jurisdiction, until all shall be usurped.”

  13. DrDog January 2, 2020 at 18:30

    Virginia is bordered by W Va, NC, Kentucky. Think HoChiMin trail of yore. Each of these states would provide exit cover for caching resources. Appalachian Trail runs thru Virginia and is not far from the border states to the West. Many go in few come out if things get hot.

  14. James January 2, 2020 at 18:36

    None of us know for sure how this will go down,but,lets all learn from this so far and join a good gun rights group in your state if you have not already.You do not have one or consider it a good one,well,start one.I do believe we need a nationwide push on what the folks are doing in Virginia,suddenly it becomes apparent to powers that want to be is a lot more then one state saying no.

    Engaging in peaceful ways may not be enough,but,at least one can say you tried peaceful options before it got very ugly.

  15. Yankee Badger January 2, 2020 at 18:51

    What does a a home-grown hasty ambush look like? Right here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C_zEQkPSxdU&feature=emb_logo
    That is a video from our fine neighbors to the south, showing their disdain for the Federales that dare to interfere with their recreational pharmaceutical distribution network. Just seven guys, smokin’ and jokin’, for the first 55 seconds, then the SHTF. Notice the terrain, similar in many ways to Virginia: steep hills, thick woods, curvy roads. The biggest lesson from this video? There is not going to be a counter-assault up the face of a cliff – choose your site well.

  16. DWEEZIL THE WEASEL January 2, 2020 at 18:53

    I doubt it will get to the point described by Mr. Bracken. The Mango Emperor can federalize the VA National Guard, taking them out of the control of Governor Baby Killer. The VA State Police can be neutralized under Title 18, Section 242, U.S.C. – Deprivation of Rights Under Color of Authority. This will first go to the courts and be fought out there. You did not see the rat bastard Marxist political hacks in the Nutmeg State go after everybody when that school shooting took place. Non-compliance is a very powerful tool.
    In spite of all of the lip service of the “law enforcement” policy wonks, desk jockeys, remoras, and sycophants; the Orcs and Orcettes out on the street are not stupid. They do not want to be shot from ambush when they pull up to the donut shop, step out of the gas station restroom, or answer a “suspicious circumstance” radio call on a dark street. This situation will be monitored by liberty-lovers all over. Keep vigilant, keep training, pray for Virginia.

  17. riverrider January 2, 2020 at 19:06

    not to mention troopers take their cars home, so everybody knows where they live and when they leave and even high school kids know how to kill a gasoline engine…however I don’t see a dirty war evolving here. there are so many diverse citizens angry to boiling and realizing the gravity of our situation that I think after a few minor incidents they will gather and march on Richmond, numbering in the tens or even hundreds of thousands by the time they reach it. if northam is truly stupid and sticks around, he’ll hang right there in the capitol square….consider that we put 100,000 asses in the seats at these sanctuary meetings without even trying. I hear grandmothers talking about this, with clinched fists. high school kids are fired up about it, young and old, veterans and teachers, intellectuals and waitresses, you name it. two largely black cities voted for it. 91 or 95 sheriffs support it, two by posse, one by deputizing citizens, another county alerted the militia. it’s on my friends.

  18. adamxxxxx January 2, 2020 at 19:16

    Well THEORETICALLY . … if faced with an oppressive Tyrant ……
    Refuse to be censused — If everyone boycotts the census it will cost the State Gov a fortune.
    Civil disobedience and refusal to comply. Grind the beast to a halt.
    trash in the recycle. Block highways and halt food from reaching the cities.
    A sophisticated technological society can be ground to a halt without a shootout, simply by jamming the gears.

  19. DDrake January 2, 2020 at 19:30

    Little State “Code” does not Supersede the SUPREME “LAW” of the PEOPLE – the US Constitution o OF the People BY the People FOR the People – To GOVERN their Elected SERVANTS. Nor does any Northam come lately Elected SERVANT have any LAWFUL Powers, nor were ANY Elected Servants EVER given any such Powers BY THE PEOPLE, to Register or Confiscate any ARMS of the People. Any such act is an ACT OF WAR, and should be considered no less by the PEOPLE. Militia and Arms are defined for WAR in the 1828 Websters Dictionary. This absolutes the fact they are for the purpose of putting down RABID DOGS that intend to BREAK the LAW of the Constitution/People. Only one thing can be done with a Rabid Dog, which all Dem-wits appear to be bent on such FOAMING at the MOUTH – at the behest and Finance of their BRITISH Central Banker Lords.

  20. RN January 2, 2020 at 19:41

    Although it is rarely mentioned, don’t forget that all of this tyranny was made possible by massive election fraud that allowed the Dems to get the Governorship and both houses. If not for the fraud we wouldn’t be in this situation.

  21. outdamnedspot January 2, 2020 at 19:44

    Get involved. Call your officials and support the 2A, even if your state is not involved in the protests! It’s time to make a stand.
    Make calls, support those who do stand up! Get to the protests if possible, but at least get in touch with your officials in support of the 2A. Numbers matter.

    Here are some links.
    The first will have protest info and updates:
    http://gunrightswatch.com/news/2019/11/24/virginia/virginia- has-become-an-overnight-tidal-wave-of-second-amendment-sanctuaries/

    All info here for contactinng officials on all levels:
    https://www.usa.gov/elected-officials/

  22. your other brother January 2, 2020 at 19:50

    No before the authorities go street to street confiscating weapons they will turn off access to bank accounts, credit, electricity, water, gas, cable, and the internet and require people in a given area to show up in person with their weapons to get services turned back on. You will show up and they will run your credit card and bank statements to see what you purchased, when and where. They will make you sign a sworn affidavit that you have no guns with severe mandatory penalties including fines and imprisonment for perjury. They will then go through the records of gun shops at their leisure and use the same methods of intimidation to compel you to show up and surrender yourself and your weapons. They will make you come to them. They will not go door to door. Too many doors out there, but try to function with all of your financial assets frozen and no services. Maybe your kids will even be snatched at school. Under those circumstances nearly everyone will opt to comply, especially after a few resistors have been made very public examples.

  23. Paul Walz January 2, 2020 at 20:20

    You dont get rid of Soris ,Bloomburge and the like war between the little people will kill millions. The top people must die for peace. ITS THAT DAMN SIMPLE

  24. Doug Riggs January 2, 2020 at 20:28

    Virginia governor requests 18-officer team to enforce gun ban
    Negative reaction to ‘2nd Amendment sanctuaries’ in 91% of state’s counties
    https://www.wnd.com/2020/01/virginia-governor-requests-18-officer-team-enforce-gun-ban/

  25. Veritas January 2, 2020 at 20:53

    I don’t think anyone here is stupid but I think many of the “come and take it” crowd are painfully naïve. They think the left will fight like they do and come at them straight on where they will be waiting poised with their trusty rifle to take on all comers. Here is a scenario that is MUCH more likely to happen. Several months after the period to register any “grandfathered in” banned weapons has passed Virginians and gun owners nationwide will pat themselves on the back for their “brave” defiance even though this bravery has cost them nothing to date. Then it starts to happen. You as a defiant assault rifle owner stop to buy gas but your card doesn’t work at the pump. No big deal you’re running late so you pay with the little bit of cash you have in your wallet rather than fool with it. You rush over to your child’s school to pick them up but don’t see them so after waiting you park and go in and are told by the principal that Child Protective Services came for you kid and they tried to call you. You glance at your phone and see there is a voicemail from the unrecognized number you didn’t answer earlier in the day because you were working. Within the next 4 hours you find out an emergency order has been signed to freeze your bank accounts and to take state custody of you kid until you come into compliance of the state’s new gun laws. They did their homework and know what you have, they don’t need to send SWAT to your house you will now willingly drive everything you “shouldn’t have” to the police station and turn yourself in to face charges because if you don’t your wife will be financially destitute and you and her will never see your child again. Unfortunately another new law you didn’t pay attention states transgender or same sex partners now have adoption priority over any orphaned children. In short order they will convince the state your 6 year old son wants to a girl and hormone therapy will begin immediately. I hate that this is so likely to happen, the left play VERY dirty and until you can start to wrap your head around that you stand zero chance of beating them.

  26. X January 2, 2020 at 21:45

    I have very serious doubts that there is going to be a “gun grab” in VA that will kick off the Boogaloo. Why? Because we have experience with this in other states, and (almost) no cops were shot. Unless Northam is very stupid, he will follow the pattern of NY and CA and CT and ban all future sales of prohibited weapons and mags, and grandfather existing ones if they are registered with the state. There will be mass noncompliance with registration, indeed creating a large number of “paper felons” — MAYBE… depending on the details of the law. If the law is written the same as NY and CA, most gun owners will modify their weapons to be “compliant” by eliminating pistol grips and flash hiders and other “banned” features and replacing them with “compliant” features such as pinned magazines or Thordsen “featureless” stocks. As long as these “loopholes” are available, there will no no mass felonies and no confiscations. (If the loopholes are closed in Virginia, well that’s a different story).

    As far as confiscations go, cops will only make confiscations and levy “assault weapons” charges if they encounter a “noncompliant” weapon incidentally in the course of a separate investigation, such as a fire, a domestic, or a drug bust. 95% of the law will be enforced at the retail level, and licensed retailers will absolutely not sell and banned items.

    This has already happened in NY and CA, and almost no cops were shot. In fact, most gun owners are cop-lovers and have deluded themselves into thinking that the cops oppose the law and won’t enforce it. The cops WILL enforce it if you are busted for something else, but they do not want to do dedicated gun-grabs in people’s homes for the most part.

    I say “almost” no cops were shot. There was the case of a guy near Elmira, NY last year who was going through a nasty divorce and his soon-to-be ex called the cops on him. When the cops rolled up there was a gunfight and a State Trooper was shot dead, and so was the suspect. After the fact it was discovered that the guy had eight banned rifles, plus mags. It does not appear that the bitch told this to the cops when she called 911 (but she might have threatened to do so privately). In any case, the cops would have found the stuff in the course of investigating a call for a “domestic” and he would have been charged with 100 years worth of felonies. In all probability he knew he was gonna be screwed and decided to just end things right there.

    This is they way it goes down in reality… not a 1775 gun-grab like Lexington Green, but a general ban followed by sporadic and incidental enforcement on a one-by-one basis.

  27. D JG January 2, 2020 at 22:41

    The absolutely most effective way to stop gun violence is to ensure that more and more good citizens can conceal carry without fear of government infringement of the Second Amendment.

  28. Grigori January 2, 2020 at 22:48

    I think Mr Bracken has too much faith in Trump. As I have noted elsewhere, if this kicks off in Virginia, I can (sadly) see Trump trying to channel Abe Lincoln and in one of his grandiose speeches, announce that “the rule of law MUST be respected” (supreme law of the land, the US Constitution and Bill of Rights be damned). Trump will then announce how he is sending Federal troops, US Marshals, and other resources to Virginia to help their Governor restore law and order. I hope I’m wrong but my gut says otherwise.

  29. Citizen January 2, 2020 at 23:01

    Corrections to your “2020 Virginia Showdown”… (1) The 2020 Virginia General Assembly convenes January 8. (2) VCDL is Virginia Civilian Defense League. An interesting and thought-provoking piece.

  30. Michael Gladius January 3, 2020 at 00:58

    In addition to the comments on freezing bank accounts and seizing children, a couple of other points to consider:

    1) The USSR did not use its most successful tactics from the Russian Civil War (i.e., forced urbanization) in Afghanistan, and the USA won’t ever do what the British did and burn down villages and leave the locals to starve to death if they don’t comply (this also was not the case in Northern Ireland). Once the civilian populace is in the cities, they can be ringed in by concrete barriers and checkpoints, which will drastically cut down on guerrilla effectiveness. A truly ruthless enemy can use these tactics methodically, patiently clearing out one county after another. Thankfully, our enemies are not known for their patience, and forced urbanization would be hard to sell, politically. With a democratic president, however, it’ll be easier.

    2) The LE aren’t the only guys to worry about. The liberals can hire masked assassins under the table to kill gun owners in their sleep, using data extracted from LE databases and confiscated gun store purchasing records. Antifa and other hired goons (recently pardoned felons, maybe?) can do this, as they only need to get within 10 feet of their target (or target’s home with gasoline) to win. If they die, then they’re expendable. This would be their preferred tactic in Appalachia and other mountainous regions where people normally live widely spread out from one another, and infrastructure is poor.

    3) In a truly worst-case scenario, immigrant communities may supply recruits for “Anti-Racist” squads for the methodical disarming stated above. Even if their quality is low, they can still achieve local superiority and put a small town under lockdown while the LE root out suspects. The government in Richmond can also blockade the roads feeding into small towns and ensure nothing comes in or goes out by truck or rail. Eventually, the resistors in the hills will need ammo resupply and clean drinking water.

    4) The biggest risk to gun owners are not helicopters, but mortars. Even low-quality conscripts or Antifa types can be trained to lug around and fire a 60-mm mortar, and the gun owners will have few options to counter this fire. Today in Afghanistan, light mortars and dismounted infantry assaults (preferably supported by vertical envelopment) are the tried-and-true tactics against the Taliban, and they have RPGs- we don’t.

    5) The forests are great for hiding- but the state can burn them down.

    We can still beat them, but they aren’t helpless. Particularly if the gun owners don’t fight together under a unified (but decentralized) chain of command.

  31. […] will be armed resistance,” warns Bracken in his excellent analysis article. “If and when widespread gun confiscation begins, even under the cover of so-called “red […]

  32. Vince January 3, 2020 at 13:11

    I doubt SCOTUS or Trump will support this. I think they are smart enough to realize that it would be a declaration of war on the American people.

    As for the idea of ‘cutting off’ those who do not comply that is a stupid as calling out the NG. If you leave a man with nothing left to lose.. you leave him with nothing left to lose – then he can get really squirrely because.. he has nothing left to lose.

    If the NG were called out by Coonman the appropriate action would be to show up quickly, draw all the weapons, ammo, and equipment they can, set the rest to be destroyed on a delay and disappear into the wilderness.

    That patriots would respond ala Bundy Ranch I have no doubt. This is another danger point. I could foresee other tin pot dictators in other blue states using this as an excuse to go after their own gun owners. That path leads to problems all along the Eastern seaboard at least. Think of what would happen in the northeast if just one or two major highways were made impassible even for a day or two at a time. .gov may have lots of resources but no one can protect every choke point, bridge, electricity pole or tower, etc etc.

    The enforcers would be local. Big problem for them. One need not even harm anyone but all sorts of accidents could happen. House fires, cars with mechanical problems, etc. However, it may not even come to that. What if the enforcer and their families become persona non-grata in their local area. Being a pariah alone could make things very difficult and mostly for the spouses and kids.

    One can hope these N Va. (or is it NVA?) chowder heads get some sense and pull back. I fear if they don’t it will be CW 2.0. And it will be very ugly

  33. Daniel Mueller January 3, 2020 at 22:54

    “Victorious warriors win first then go to battle, while defeated warriors go to battle and seek to win.” Sun Tzu (The Art of War)

  34. […] the American Partisan reports in this new story, with what is now happening in the state of Virginia a loud and clear warning to ALL Americans […]

  35. […] The 2020 Virginia Showdown […]

  36. […] will be armed resistance,” warns Bracken in his excellent analysis article. “If and when widespread gun confiscation begins, even under the cover of so-called “red […]

  37. […] The 2020 Virginia Showdown Posted by Matt Bracken | Jan 2, 2020 If and when widespread gun confiscation begins, even under the cover of so-called “red flag” laws or following the refusal of Virginians to comply with gun registration mandates, there will be a civil war. https://www.americanpartisan.org/2020/01/the-2020-virginia-showdown […]

  38. […] THE UNITED NATIONS PREPARING TO CONFISCATE GUNS IN AMERICA? IF NOT, THEN WHY’D THEY JUST DO THIS? THE 2020 VIRGINIA SHOWDOWN:Make no mistake: gun confiscation laws, as well as laws making paper felo… Monkeypox in DRC: More than 5,000 cases reported in […]

  39. Win Bigly January 5, 2020 at 11:30

    Matt,
    Keep things in perspective. The last election was lost because VA couldn’t even field enough candidates to fill all the major offices, So it went to the people who organized the best-the Left.

    It’s not going to be a civil war. What’s going to happen there, like places elsewhere, is that some people will talk big for a while, then get quiet, the laws will still be on the books, and the state will pry guns from cold dead hands-on each owners death bed. Not on a battlefield, from their death beds.

    Either that, or by way of bench warrants issued for failure to register, or just plain catching some resister out in the open or at the range with their now-contraband firearm.

    Always remember that when the chance to easily avoid this whole situation was available, the last election, there weren’t enough people who cared.

    So don’t go fantasizing about the great numbers of owners out there who you think sympathize and will fight.

    Most of them are just a bunch of Fudds or hobbyists who really don’t care one way or another.

    Prove me wrong and I’ll be happy. But there’s just too much recent history saying otherwise.

    Win

  40. ruralcounsel January 5, 2020 at 21:53

    Live in a rural county of Virginia in the Shenandoah. Got a delivery from FedEx yesterday of xxxx rounds of .223. The Fed Ex guy, lifting the (heavy) boxes out of his truck, says “I’ve been delivering a lot of these recently.” Things are going to get interesting.

  41. […] by Matt Bracken for the American Partisan ~ January 3, […]

  42. RegT January 6, 2020 at 18:37

    Mark Spungin, the Wyoming author of _Neither Predator Nor Prey_ had his protagonists shooting up every vehicle in the National Guard compound. When those were replaced, the replacements were shot to pieces. This put the Guard forces (who didn’t want to be doing it anyway) on foot, unable to do more than walk around looking “bad”. The one arrest they attempted – from an anonymous phone call was a trap. Worse, they surrounded the house and ended up shooting each other – “friendly fire”. Several innocent civilians were killed, and the Guard’s effectiveness went to absolute zero at that point.

    The book makes some good points, and provides some ideas on tactics for dealing with confiscation attempts. Besides that, it’s a jolly good read.

    SPOILER ALERT:

    Federal judges can’t learn to fly quickly enough from the roof of a four story building to land safely.

  43. RegT January 6, 2020 at 19:12

    The folks who talk of the state taking their children, freezing their assets, and such are possibly right, but the far simpler way for non-compliance to be dealt with is by making a traffic stop on you while you are going to or from work, grocery shopping, etc. They take you into custody, send a team to your home, subdue your wife and kids, and tear your house apart to find your weapons (or just because they can, along with stomping your cat and shooting your dog). Finding none, they threaten your wife with taking your children unless she shows them where they are.

    BUT – that is when those cops, National Guardsmen, prosecutors, legislators, and politicians need to be sniped or hung from lampposts, _especially_ if they target your children, wife, and home. You take the three or four (or more) weapons you buried and begin guerrilla action. One man, or with one or two friends to watch your six. Wife and children can be sent to stay with friends, preferably ones who you aren’t known to socialize with – or sympathizers willing to provide a safe house for your family. If your family is harmed in any way – including by taking your children – the families of those who have done so become fair game. Hurting innocent families whose husbands/father are harming your family will be hard to do, but rather than killing them, you can take them and hold them as your family is being held.

    At some point, enough men and women who have been devastated by their children being taken into custody, home destroyed, job lost, assets seized, etc., and/or friends or simply patriots who are single with no family to worry about (or none in the state, at least) will have reduced state and local vehicles to broken salvage, shot up the buildings of agencies harassing gun owners, taken out transformers and electric transfer stations supplying those buildings, and perhaps begun to take out those responsible, in Richmond or elsewhere.

    It does not take more than a few with the balls and motivation to wreak havoc on those who would enslave you, as has been pointed out about the IRA vs local law enforcement and the British army. So, those folks who say “it can’t be done”, “no one will actually take action” will indeed be proven wrong. It needs to happen, and I promse you, there are those who will engage and do what is necessary. Maybe they won’t succeed, but I guarantee you that the state of Virginia will learn all about Unintended Consequences.

  44. […] The 2020 Virginia Showdown, by Matt Bracken, January 2, 2020 […]

  45. Anonymous January 9, 2020 at 16:07

    1

  46. muneshadowe January 9, 2020 at 20:52

    Folks, do NOT under any circumstance register your firearms with any law enforcement or government agency. People in municipalities and nations such as nazi Germany did and you know what happened next, gone. Never trust someone from government who claims they are there to help they will be the one that will do you in.

  47. Ron Mendez January 13, 2020 at 21:29

    Matt. I would like to use your modification of the Virginia Seal image in my newspaper. Thank You, Ron Mendez: Howell County News, Missouri.

  48. […] Bracken, former Navy Seal and gun-rights advocate warns of a concerted effort to make the patriots look like the instigators of violence, by executing false flag operations, as mentioned above.  A Texas gun rights organization warns of […]

  49. Sunday Sermonette – Virtual Mirage March 30, 2020 at 05:57

    […] American Partisan – “In all of history there has never been a civil war where, at the outset of hostilities, the resisting indigenous population was armed to the teeth with rifles capable of making 500 to 1,000 yard aimed precision shots. Never.” […]

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