How Soon Is Now?

I’m getting a lot of questions from folks on a great deal of topics, but one of the top among them is “when do we know its time to head to the bugout location?

That’s not an easy question to answer. Packing up and leaving the job behind to head to that retreat is the gut instinct thing to do, but the nagging question of ‘what if I’m wrong’ still lingers. And while a lot of people could be sitting on their high horse telling you things like ‘you shoulda left years ago!‘ and ‘pop smoke now!‘, reality is just not that simple.

While its very much an individual question for you to answer, its never an easy decision to make. For many, once they leave, there may be nothing to come back to. That’s a hard truth to set in, much the same way people feel when they leave their homes before a hurricane. Board it up, take off, and hope for the best.

But we see hurricanes coming. We’re given a timeline to get out and a relative location of the impacted area. Its all stuff that if you live on the east coast you know. This…pandemics, shortages in the supply chain, social disruptions, quarantines…this is a different animal. You can’t predict when to get out, and that uncertainty is leaving many scratching their heads and pacing with a serious worry. And that’s very understandable- this is the most serious and potentially volatile situation I’ve seen in my lifetime.

My suggestion, for the many who’ve asked me over the past two weeks, is that the fail-proof way to know its time to hit that BOL is when the first food riot starts. Not in your home town, but the first food riot in the US.

I remember my first deployment to Iraq and the culture shock I experienced on my first trip outside the wire. I had never been outside the relative comfort of western civilization, and seeing people sell gasoline from plastic jugs on the side of the road, open-air markets selling goats, chickens, and fish from ice-filled tires, people’s homes with little to nothing aside from a few blankets and a Koran…it was a level of poverty that I could not fathom.

A lot of people are now experiencing a similar shock when they see bare shelves in the usually bustling grocery stores. That shock is setting in en masse, with my fear being a whole generation of people unable to cope with this reality after never observing anything else. Sure, we can say that the stuff will come back, at some point, but it does little to alleviate the cracks in the foundation of trust in this so-called ‘just-in-time’ supply system. What will happen if and when the shelves don’t get re-filled?

I’ve said that the people ain’t hungry, yet. And they’re not. Most in the US cannot even fathom actual starvation. Sociologists have even studied this phenomena by labeling areas without access to fresh food, but reliant on fast food alone, as so-called food deserts. Imagine my revulsion (which I still have) at these first world problems. At least these people have food. What a more glaring product of the excesses of capitalism that the people can make an entire diet of nothing more than fast food. And what will happen when these people no longer have that option?

They’ll riot.

That first food riot is best thought of as another domino to fall. It is an exposure of the larger system’s inability to recoup its losses and like this virus, the loss of confidence will quickly spread to other cities. The larger disruption would have the potential to overwhelm whatever security establishment would be present. Hungry people are motivated people and its been said that the US is three days away from complete chaos. While I don’t know if that’s true, I’m not willing to stick around and find out.

 

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About the Author: NC Scout

NC Scout is the nom de guerre of a former Infantry Scout and Sergeant in one of the Army’s best Reconnaissance Units. He has combat tours in both Iraq and Afghanistan. He teaches a series of courses focusing on small unit skills rarely if ever taught anywhere else in the prepping and survival field, including his RTO Course which focuses on small unit communications. In his free time he is an avid hunter, bushcrafter, writer, long range shooter, prepper, amateur radio operator and Libertarian activist. He can be contacted at brushbeater@tutanota.com or via his blog at brushbeater.wordpress.com .

20 Comments

  1. tz March 25, 2020 at 08:44

    Assuming you are still working which is a big “if”. And if you are in the chaos zone, not already in a supply source area.

    If your bugout location allows you to “work from home” and your employer has that policy, even optional, do it. If you are NOT working, definitely go there. And ask your employer. You may also have a friend or relative closer to your remote location (don’t say you are bugging out), or the hotels with 5% occupancy that happen to be in smaller towns.

    There’s a hundred variables.

    • NC Scout March 25, 2020 at 08:49

      Yes there is. That’s why the answer is different for literally everyone.

      But when that first food riot happens inside the US, it’s time to get to where ever you’re planning on going.

  2. HP March 25, 2020 at 09:17

    My brother who works in the steel industry (deemed essential by the state) called me yesterday when leaving work (machine shop where he works is in the inner city) to say he observed mile+ long lines of cars in both directions in queue at the foodbank. The lines were so long that they caused stoppages on the adjacent 8-lane highway. This has never happened here. It blows my mind that people are this dependent for basics of survival. Wondering if this is just a preview of the food riots you mention?

    • NC Scout March 25, 2020 at 09:34

      I think it is, but that’s one mans opinion. What’s gonna happen when those people in the breadline realize there’s no bread to wait on?

  3. WIHunter March 25, 2020 at 10:00

    Excellent and timely topic, agree the variables are different for everyone. Are you city vs suburban dweller? What does your current area’s situation look like? Currently in this part of WI, grocery stores are still being restocked, albeit not at “normal” pre-virus levels. Only paper products, fresh meat, some canned goods and cleaning supplies are scarce. I’ll make the call based local situational variables.

    If your BOL is within relatively easy drive, I would expect everyone has already been there at least once within last month. Should have already taken inventory and resupplied, made last minute repairs or whatever else needed done after hunting season ended last fall. I used one of these trips the last 2 months to practice vehicle loading to see if my load out plan actually passed reality.

    Thankfully, up until now, the Midwest has stayed calm. Stay safe.

  4. kaiserworks March 25, 2020 at 12:27

    Keep in mind, you may not know about the first food riot or worse events.
    Legacy media is in lock step and there are already ‘conditioning’ stories floating in the media about how the internet ‘might be’ overwhelmed in the current situation and bandwidth limited to ‘essential’ websites. Seen this on mainstream web news sites and heard the same schtick on terrestrial radio this morning. One might comfortably assume that waking up to restricted internet IS a sign to get to bug out location.

    • NC Scout March 25, 2020 at 14:38

      That’s why I’ve emphasized the need for off-grid communications over the years.

  5. Doug March 25, 2020 at 12:58

    I suppose there may be hunger which the homless exhibit everyday and get by.
    The homeless have become accustomed to it and to a point accepted their as their “normal”.
    However, the unknown is for those who are now well-fed and comfortable who become hungry and then starving en masse.
    Katy, bar the door…

  6. johnyMac March 25, 2020 at 14:49

    I enjoyed reading your article NC Scout. Ahhh, the age-old question for folks who have a bug out location… When? I also like your analogy of when a hurricane comes along when do folks abandon their house close to the coast and move inland. There the government tells people to leave not common sense.

    There is a rule of thumb I read somewhere that society starts to breakdown 10-days post a drama like the Kung Fu Virus. I wish I could remember the author so I could give them credit. Well let’s call it Ol’ JohnyMac’s rule of thumb. So, as you wrote good sir, it is time to leave when the first riot occurs is a good one. It really does not need to be a riot in your AO. Riots like brush fires spread quickly.

    We are all learning things right now. For some folks it is like drinking from a fire hose while others it is like drinking from a garden hose. Even when cruising on the sailboat a lifetime ago, I always knew when to put a reef in the mainsail.

    We would be screaming along and suddenly, I would think, “Mmmm, maybe I should put a reef in the main”. When I thought about it, I knew it was time to put down my adult beverage, put the boat into the wind, climb out of the cockpit and do the maneuver I have done a thousand times before. Mr. Bracken and other sailors out there understand.

    Great thought-provoking article Brother. Thanks!

  7. Anonymous March 25, 2020 at 18:33

    4.5

  8. Anonymous March 25, 2020 at 18:43

    5

  9. vyt1az March 25, 2020 at 22:45

    The first food riot is an excellent metric for a very difficult decision. 20yrs ago it would be less so, but with social media ideas go “viral” very quickly. Many folks can, and likely will, coordinate riots across various cities over social media like they have in the past.

    Since I can work remotely but moving my family is no trivial effort, I’ve got a few metrics I’ll seriously consider even before a riot breaks out. Maybe some of these will be helpful for others to consider.

    1. Internet becomes unreliable (my backup location doesn’t have fast internet but it works)
    2. Repeated delays in unemployment checks or EBT payments
    3. A lot more stray domestic animals roaming around the neighborhood without their owners
    4. Unusual faces that seem to be milling around your neighborhood particularly teenage males
    5. Hearing / seeing more open domestic arguments
    6. Too many neighbors become unemployed
    7. Trash no longer being picked up
    8. Too many sick police or the jails turn out more than just the non-violent offenders
    9. Damage / vandalism to businesses or residences not being fixed in a timely manner
    10. Food delivery services (i.e. Instacart) unable to fulfill at least part of a grocery order or no available drivers. At first glance it sounds like a “first world problem,” but it’s a good indicator. There’s either not enough food, too many sick people, or the risk isn’t worth it to the drivers anymore

    With all of that being said, I hope people planning on getting to a backup location have maps of where they need to go, with alternative routes, and enough high quality stabilized gas in jerry cans to get there without having to stop at a gas station. Gas stations are of course, some people’s “food deserts” and when they find out it has become a real food desert, they may turn it into a staging point for hijacking that nice vehicle of yours with all those nice things in it while you’re stopping to buy gas.

  10. Scurvy March 26, 2020 at 11:58

    My comms are up and I have taken to listening in on a couple of regular HF nets to keep ahead of what is coming.

    I am hoping that if/when things start going sideways one of my fine fellow readers will pass the word to the ever vigilant NCScout who will post for all to heed.

    Even in the mostly level headed area I live in, the freezer section is picked clean of pre-prepared meals while there are still some fresh vegetables and meats to be had. For the fast food diet demographic, I think they would be hard pressed to cook a box of mac-n-cheese with a can of tuna tossed in.

  11. James March 26, 2020 at 15:42

    I would also say is your bugout up and running/water/sanitary/supplies ect. or does it “need work”,it “needs work” would already be there doing any last minute preps one can for basic survival/thriving in tough times.

  12. Ned 2 March 28, 2020 at 16:58

    You mean, you’re not already in your bug out location??????

    • NC Scout March 29, 2020 at 21:44

      I am. Are you?

  13. Tania March 29, 2020 at 11:18

    March 16 2020 was a special day as we now look back. Real sky, real clouds perfect to enjoy our last lunch in a dining room along the Columbia River in Hood River, Oregon. Truly, it doesn’t get much better than that, views of snow covered Mt Adams, Mt Hood & the beautiful Columbia dotted with kite boarders & wind surfers.. No matter how long we live in this general area, who could ever grow tired of the ever changing dynamics of the view, depending on weather, cloud patterns, shadows & lights.

    Washington & Oregon have close to 2000 wineries, world class river rafting, spectacular scenery, fishing, hiking, golf, hunting, birding, skiing, snow boarding, snow mobile and on and on recreation.. People vacation here and others have made the effort to call it home and wake up every morning to feeling lucky. Also Hood River is about the dividing line between the fringe Liberal Demon-Crats and the hard working, rural folks who’s ancestors settled the area from the Oregon Trail. I’ve never met a dumb or out of touch with reality farmer. We are privy to amazing farms, game ranches, raw milk and an extremely healthy life style should we choose it. Both states are open or concealed carry and I obtained both licenses in a day or 2.

    Then the insulting ridiculous nonsense that a common cold virus could be the distraction & pretext to shut down the entire country? All cold & flu viruses morph, that is how they survive and the only thing which will protect us is a robust immune system. As a Naturopath with 80 countries under my belt I’ve had typhoid as an infant, plus amoebic dysentery, & a couple of other major disorders including being in Europe when Chernobyl melted down, but only 1 cold and never have had the flu. This version of the cold virus, which are either Rhino viruses or Corona viruses, could NOT be a CHEM BIO, because the death rates would be staggering. Turn off the spoon fed black box psy op, dismiss the lies and do your own math. Don’t take my word for up, check The American Medical Association Encyclopedia and you’ll see Corona described as the common cold.

    Obviously the mortality rates vary from day to day, but with approx 350 million pop, the odds of contracting & dying from this virus is not even approaching 1%, most days I calculate you can add 4 or 5 zeros before the 1% It’s that low, and that’s even with their agenda based cooked books, because NOBODY dies from a cold, but those of us with weak systems will develop other disorders such as pneumonia etc.

    My opinion only, “they” expected this to destroy Trump’s chance and would last past the election. But people are beginning to wake up, too slowly, they may not make it to the election. The next bigger distraction might surely come cascading down on us. Realistically, I do not anticipate our country ever returning to what it was on March 15…..sure things will slowly reopen when we’re allowed to behave normally, but how much of the tyranny and broken trust will be just beneath the surface? We all know the depop folks intend to reduce us by 90%.

    There are no one size fits all solutions, just dozens of questions. Try not to go this alone, it may break up families, but it seems critical that like minded, strong folks watch each others backs and keep each other informed.

    Safe Journey

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