Daily SA: Pathway to citizenship, NDAA funds war footing, U.S.-Chinese diplomatic games

Good morning. Here’s your Daily Situational Awareness briefing for Friday, 23 July 2021. You can receive this daily intel brief by signing up at https://forwardobserver.com/daily-sa

  TODAY’S BRIEFING:

• Repeating the 1986 pathway to citizenship mistake
• Labor shortages to affect pork production?
• US, Chinese officials to meet despite diplomatic games
• 2022 NDAA appears to be war funding
• Freight disruptions to delay shipments from Japan

  SITUATIONAL AWARENESS

PATHWAY: Members of Congress continued debating the Farm Workforce Modernization Act (FWMA), which would provide a pathway to citizenship for migrant farm workers. Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-IA) noted that it was similar to a 1986 immigration bill which included amnesty for farm workers — many of whom ended up leaving farm work after gaining citizenship. Farms were then forced to import new farm workers from Central America. Other Republicans are concerned that any serious talk of amnesty will result on a larger “run on the border.” – M.S.

LABOR: National Pork Producers Council warned Congress that meatpackers are short on labor by about 25-30%, and if not addressed could lead to packing plants shutting down. The organization is calling for expansion of the H-2A visa program for temporary agriculture workers. (AC: Frozen pork stocks can likely meet US demand for months, even if no new pork is being processed. There is a risk heading into the fall and winter that COVID outbreaks will again disrupt processing. At a minimum, between higher feed prices and labor shortages, expect beef and pork prices to remain elevated. – M.S.)

RUNAROUND: US negotiator Wendy Sherman will meet Chinese officials next week to discuss tensions and a path forward for the US-China relationship. China has already played games, first scheduling a meeting between Sherman and Foreign Minister Wang Yi, then downgrading Sherman to meeting with the Vice Foreign Minister. (Analyst Comment: It’s a sign that China is playing hardball with the Biden administration, while Biden treats China with kid gloves. The United States this week formally accused China of the recent Microsoft hack and other malicious cyber attacks, while Biden said he would not be pursuing sanctions against China over these hacking campaigns. Bill Evanina, former director of the National Counterintelligence and Security Center estimates that “80% of American adults have had all of their personally identifiable information stolen by the Communist Party of China.”  – M.S.)

NDAA: The 2022 National Defense Authorization Act amends the Military Selective Service Act to require women to register for the draft. Further it “authorizes funding for all other underfunded requirements as requested.” (AC: While the dollar amounts remain controversial in some areas, no A-10s, B-1Bs, or C-130s are authorized for retirement and legacy fighter acquisitions received more funding. This strongly signals the US is preparing for war and is a $25 billion increase over what the White House requested. – D.M.)

AIR FREIGHT: Due to increased global consumer demands and container shortages, industrial equipment is taking up to four months to arrive from Japan. Ocean lanes are no longer considered a viable option and high-end goods are resorting to air shipping, further driving up costs from manufacturers to consumers. Logistics analysts warn shippers to “brace for an extended peak season” as US consumers continue buying products rather than transitioning to services. (AC: More than 200,000 business establishments closed in 2020, driving consumers to online vendors, which in many instances is increasing logistics strain. – D.M.)

  HAZARDS WARNING

HURRICANE SEASON: The National Hurricane Center reports a low pressure disturbance off the coast of Georgia and South Carolina. While the likelihood of development remains low, thunderstorms and heavy rain could continue for the region.

  In today’s Early Warning briefing, Max discusses the new push for a General Strike later this year, and provides details for potential Far Left unrest moving into the weekend. Upgrade your Situational Awareness to Early Warning here: https://forwardobserver.com/subscribe