Don Shift Sends: 2024 Election Predictions

I felt like doing a little brainstorming, or “frognosticating” as Mark Twain would say, about several different probable ways the Presidential election and 2025 could go. None of them are good. Even if he wins, Donald Trump won’t save America. We are in for hardship no matter what, so buckle your seatbelt. You’re living at the end of the Republic and quite probably America’s last good year.

Biden “wins” and the Republicans win Congress or the current balance is maintained

Boring, this is the status quo. America just continues to suck harder, but slower than feared.

Biden “wins” and the Democrats win control of Congress too.

We very nearly came to this reality in 2022, thanks to the Republicans fumbling the election and refusing (at the state level) to fix the voting laws. We are currently seeing the Agenda Lite in play now and it has been damn destructive. Single-party capture of government will be magnitudes worse. Everything bad that can be passed through Congress and by Executive Order will happen as the Constitution, already in a death rattle, perishes.

Imagine the conservatives on the Supreme Court, or at least the serious ones like Justice Thomas, being impeached and removed. They groundwork has already been laid. The Court might be packed regardless of impeachment; the President can simply appoint Justices with Senate approval. This would obviously mean that no law could be effectively challenged and the Court would simply rubber stamp any legislation.

Citizenship for illegal aliens will be rushed through, the amnesty cementing permanent Democrat voters. Socialized medicine will be enacted alongside a universal basic income. The economy will be trashed by this alone, well before we get to the insane “environmental” regulations they’ll want to pass. Have you ever wondered what it was like to live in Zimbabwe or Weimar Germany? You’ll find out!

Biden (and Harris) will probably be forced out of office at some point once he stops being useful. Say hello to Gavin Newsom, Michelle “Big Mike” Obama, or heaven only knows who. Forget electing DeSantis to fix things in 2028. They’ll make sure that voting is just a mandate for them. They’ll ruin your lovely red state community too so that your governor and legislature looses any consensus to try and defy the federal government or secede. I’d go on, but you know the rest of this story; we’re watching it happen everyday.

Trump wins by margins too large to overcome, the far left goes nuts, riots, and Trump is possibly assassinated.

This is one of my most likely courses of action. Given the absolutely deplorable state of the economy and the country, I believe things are too dire for Democrats to win by cheating. I saw the other day that Trump was up by 12 in Nevada, a purple state, and with all the Palestinian pandering I think Biden is in trouble in Michigan. So let’s say that just like in 2016, Trump blows Biden out of the water and he’s unquestionably the 47th President.

Well, the far Left will be very energized to DO SOMETHING and political violence like we saw in 2020 will happen again. The only difference is we currently lack the COVID anxiety, George Floyd outrage, and lockdowns allowing people to get out of work to enlarge the crowds. However, the 2008 October Surprise was the economic meltdown. Something like that might happen before/after the election to panic the people. A war might be started. Do not put it past the powers that be to set the world on fire to hand it over to Trump.

If Trump wins again, the nutbags will come out of the woodwork. Expect serious assassination attempts and more amateurish ones. Remember that all the succeeding attacks in the past were pretty ham-fisted overall, but I think the Secret Service has learned its lesson. Now, whether someone whacko wants to come after him or the threat is jail/prison, his agents will die for him. I know guys that have spent time with Trump’s Secret Service detail and those guys love him. Donald Trump is a decent human being, even if he is Donald Trump. I wouldn’t be surprised if, push comes to shove, they go off the reservation to keep him safe and out of jail.

As for what exactly might happen on the domestic terror front, I would expect serious leftist recruiting to amplify to levels necessary to state an actual insurrection. Communities and states might effectively secede or simply refuse to go along with the Trump Administration, leading to all sorts of nasty consequences. At this point, a leftist revolution with domestic terrorism targeting “conservatives” will probably occur. It would not surprise me if the move comes either from, or hand-in-hand, with Islamic terror.

What does the right do if Trump is dead or dishonestly removed from office? I would expect that such a thing would be the last straw, the shredding of the final hope, and the removal of the last restraint from men of action. With an outrage like that and no practical hope of saving the country, the last thing that might allow non-violent correction would be gone. Whether it is the crazy or more sober-minded men, I would expect retaliation in some form from the right.

The right is less organized than the left and less openly violent. “Conservatives” generally want to live and let live; it’s why they’re conservative. It would take longer for the right to spin up forces or meaningful attack capabilities, but when they do, look out. Right-retaliation would probably involve attacks on protests and riots, especially if police fail to do anything. Lone-wolves or smaller groups may go after politicians. The danger of this is if it “goes viral,” so-to-speak, things might go from an isolated attack by a weirdo on a Congressperson to taking out the wacky liberal mayor and eventually to your neighbors who voted for Hillary in 2008. A civil war is an ugly, ugly thing.

Trump wins, but Democrats take both Houses, impeaching him and removing him from office.

It depends on the Democrats taking control of Congress. I’m not sure of the exact polling numbers at the moment, but with the massaged voting rules from 2020 in effect and the narrowness of the split, it is a possibility. Not a guarantee, but a very real risk that Democrats “win” it all. If that happens, and Trump is elected President, I wouldn’t bet against an impeachment. He’s already been impeached twice, just not removed from office. With the votes in the Senate to remove him, they will.

Remember that the third in line to the Presidency is the Speaker of House, who will be a Democrat again if they “win” a majority of seats. If Trump’s running mate isn’t a spineless weasel who will comply with the agenda, say like Nicky Haley, some pretended charges can be found to get rid of them as well, clearing the way for a Democrat president. Then, as above, it’s all over as Congress passes whatever they want.

What does the Right do? Well the Republican Party is finished at that point. Many Trump voters and “conservatives” will entirely loose faith in the American system and consider the government illegitimate. We will have a split between the those who are pleased with the outcome, those who are ambivalent, and those who are seriously disaffected. Some of those groups will feel emboldened to attack the other while the clueless will simply notice life getting even more worse. The country will crumble politically and socially in an irretrievable spiral.

States choosing to go their own way and openly defy the Feds will probably happen. Not quite secession, but a tacit admission that the United States is a monster wearing our country and constitution as a skin suit. Governors in the mold of Abbot and DeSantis creating an opposition coalition of states. Conflicts between these states will grow. Look for an international war to distract the public from the troubles at home.

This may occur before the actual inauguration on January 20, as the new Congress is seated on January 3. Frankly, I think this is one of the most likely courses of action. There is plenty of ammo with his on going trials to make something up. With the legal action against him, a “by the books” impeachment might be enough to convince the people who don’t pay attention or believe the evening news that democracy or integrity or some such nonsense was protected.

Will Trump decide to cross the Rubicon and seize power? Nah, he hasn’t got the cobbles, although he’s too rich and powerful to jail. Trump dead or in jail is probably a nightmare scenario because it would motivate, uh, radical action, so it would be better if he gets a fine, a suspended sentence, and probation. If they want to lock him up, they’d have to be willing to go all the way. Remember that Louis XVI and Tsar Nicholas didn’t survive detention.

Trump wins by a narrow margin: some emergency or legal issue is declared to “set aside” the election.

This has never been done before in the United States. The presidential election occurring on “the Tuesday next after the first Monday in November” is a time-honored tradition that has never been cancelled or postponed. This is statutory, meaning it is set by a law that can be amended (specifically 2 U.S. Code § 7). Article I, Section 4 of the Constitution allows Congressional elections to be moved and Article II, Section 1 does not specify when the popular election is, but that Congress may set the date for the “chusing of Electors, and the Day on which they shall give their votes.”

So a rogue Congress might very well move the date of the election, if an emergency were sufficient enough to provide political cover and give an excuse to weak Republicans. What might this be? Well, COVID was one example but changing the rules to game the system worked effectively enough—who knows though if they want to take that gamble again? Many have speculated it might be provoking a major war or cyberattack. Kind of hard to guarantee whatever happens is big enough to convince those in Congress to go along with such a shenanigan, while duping at least half the country into assuming it’s necessary, without blowing up the country.

The issue with postponing the election is the transparency of the fraud. The danger in any con is allowing the victim to realize he’s being duped before he’s too far in to do anything about it. A perfect balance of theft involves a plausible element of doubt that everything was above board; exactly how 2020’s election fraud was pulled off. No one can prove it, but we all know something was fishy. So this is the least likely scenario because it is too transparent. Why mess with the election when Trump can just be impeached?

Personally, I think that it is in the best interest of China, Iran, or Russia to launch a cyberattack on Election Day to sew mayhem, limit the votes (which will disproportionately affect Trump/Republican voters), and create doubt about the legitimacy of the election. If there was ever a time to serious interfere in an American election, this is the year. I would also posit that terror attacks and/or rioting are very serious threats to polling places. Again, Trump and Republican voters will turn out in person on Election Day, so what better way to harm the Right’s votes by scaring people away from the polling booth?

About the author: Don Shift is a veteran of the Ventura County Sheriff’s Office and author of the Suburban Defense/Rural Home Defense series, a cop’s guides to surviving riots, civil war, or SHTF.