China May Be the Ukraine War’s Big Winner

A year ago, the Chinese leader Xi Jinping told Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky that, in the words of Beijing’s official readout, “China always stands on the side of peace.” But China was standing nowhere near the recent Swiss-sponsored international summit that convened to seek a peaceful resolution to Russia’s war against Ukraine. China’s conspicuous absence was made even more glaring by the great show that Beijing has made of mediating a settlement between the combatants.

Xi’s excuse was that all parties were not properly represented at the summit—in other words, the Russian party, which had not been invited. His relationship with Russian President Vladimir Putin has grown too close for anyone to expect the Chinese leader to be taken seriously as a peacemaker. Any hope that Xi might use his influence with Putin as leverage to help bring an end to the war evaporated long ago. Instead, the focus in Western capitals is now turning to the role that China is actually playing in the conflict—as facilitator of the Russian war effort. In that, the United States and its allies face a distressing reality: A protracted war in Europe suits Xi’s interests just fine.

Xi is, in effect, freeloading off the very U.S.-led global-security system he hopes to destroy, in order to replace it with a China-centric world order. He can leave the heavy lifting of solving the Ukraine crisis to Washington while exploiting it for China’s interests. Right now, this approach looks as effective as it is cynical.

If Putin prevails in his war, Xi has a partner who will have scored a victory against the hated West and promoted the global power of authoritarian regimes. Even if Putin fails to secure such an outright triumph, Xi will have helped Russia drain the U.S. and its allies of military and financial resources, while pulling Putin’s weakened but resource-rich country closer into China’s orbit.

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