Facing military setbacks, Tehran may look to the bomb, analysts fear

BEIRUT — It has been one setback after another for Iran — the loss of its own and allied military commanders in Israeli strikes, death and disarray in the ranks of Hezbollah and, in response, a ballistic missile attack on Israel whose destruction appeared limited.

Former U.S. officials and analysts worry that Iran’s conventional losses are exactly the kind of development that could trigger a final dash to the bomb. Iran has spent years moving ever closer to acquiring a capability for nuclear weapons since then-President Donald Trump scuttled the Iran nuclear deal in 2018, according to U.S. and U.N. assessments.

Now, even short of a move toward weaponization, Iran may be willing to increase use of its potential nuclear status to deter its adversaries. And that appears to be informing Israeli leaders as they consider a response to the barrage of around 180 ballistic missiles.

“Iran made a big mistake tonight, and it will pay for it,” Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warned after Tuesday’s attack. “The regime in Iran does not understand our determination to defend ourselves and to retaliate against our enemies.”

While visually spectacular — videos of Iranian missiles lighting up the Tel Aviv sky played on a loop on Iranian state television for days — the munitions that actually made it though Israel’s defenses don’t appear to have caused the extensive damage Iran intended.

The attack was “extraordinary,” “legal” and “legitimate,” said Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, while leading Friday prayers in Tehran. But his remarks also struck a somber tone, acknowledging recent losses, particularly the assassination of Hezbollah leader Hasan Nasrallah, whom he praised as a “brother” and “shining jewel of Lebanon.”

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