Trump Builds Momentum
Two months before his inauguration, the Trump administration is rapidly building momentum. Trump is already ahead of where he was when he won his stunning Election Day victory. What’s more, Democrat missteps are likely to further add to Trump’s momentum in coming weeks.
A recent Harvard CAPS/Harris poll showed 54% of registered voter respondents approve of Trump’s transition performance, while only 40 percent disapprove. While this may not seem like overwhelming support, put into context it is.
Trump’s favorable/unfavorable rating in the Real Clear Politics average of national polling is 45.2%-51.7%. On November 5, Trump beat Harris in the popular vote 49.9-48.3%. And during his first term, Gallup polling never saw Trump hit the 50% approval mark; instead, he topped out at 49% on a few occasions.
Returning to Trump’s transition polling data, he registered a positive 14 percentage point margin. That compares to his negative 6.5 percentage point favorability margin and his 1.6 percentage point popular vote margin.
Look at specific groups in the transition poll, and the results are even more impressive. Exit polling of the 2024 election saw Trump win 46% of Independents; in the transition poll, 49% approved of Trump. Exit polling showed Trump winning just 4% of Democrats; the transition poll showed 22% of Democrats approved of Trump’s transition.
In less than three weeks, Trump has made a significant jump from the candidate who was predicted by several polls to lose the presidency.
Nor are Trump’s gains likely to stop.
When the transition poll was taken, Rep. Gaetz was still the nominee to be Attorney General. Gaetz was also easily Trump’s most controversial cabinet pick. However, Gaetz has since withdrawn his nomination, and Trump has tapped Pam Bondi, Florida’s highly respected former attorney general, to head the DOJ.
Trump’s transition benefits from its juxtaposition with the still-in-office but still-out-to-lunch Biden administration. Biden’s approval ratings are almost a perfect reversal of Trump’s. Overall, Biden has a 41-56.3% split in RCP’s average of national polling. In comparison to Trump’s plus 14 percentage-point margin, Biden’s is a minus 15.3 percentage points. And it gets worse on specific issues: Biden is minus 19.2 percentage points on the economy, minus 18.8 percentage points on foreign policy, minus 27.2 percentage points on inflation, minus 16.7 percentage points on crime, and minus 27.8 percentage points on illegal immigration, and the direction of the country is rated negative by an astounding 35.3 percentage points.
Simply not being Biden will make Trump look good.
Nor are Democrats doing anything to make themselves look better before they leave.
Department of Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo has stated that she is intent on shoveling out the door all remaining dollars within her purview. At the same time, by announcing new rules, Biden officials are again trying to cancel student loan debts—and thereby foist these costs onto general taxpayers—despite having past efforts rejected by the courts.
Biden administration officials are also relaxing illegal immigration restrictions in their remaining days in office. The Department of Homeland Security is set to begin an ICE portal app next month that will allow migrants to avoid checking in at an ICE office in person. The app also does not check a person’s location if they use it with certain electronic devices, nor does it check an individual for outstanding warrants or past arrests. It also allows migrants to opt out of electronic tracking.
Democrat actions that will make Trump look better don’t stop with the administration. Several Democrat governors and other elected officials have already thrown down the gauntlet before an administration already months away from taking office.
Officials from California, Illinois, Washington, New York, and other jurisdictions have all rallied around defiance. Of course, their rallies have centered on causes—such as illegal immigration sanctuaries and transgender surgery—that are immensely unpopular across the rest of America. The defiance in general and its centering on unpopular policies are certain to make Trump even more popular with the rest of Americans who don’t share them.
As sure as these events have happened on cue, expect more to follow over the next two months and then into the Trump administration’s beginnings. They will force Democrats into the “Kamala Harris conundrum.” Trapped between extremist positions and their radical base, who support them, Democrats will either be forced to go along or to toss their own word salads in attempts to say nothing. They will thereby cede Trump advantageous positions and clear messages—further accelerating the momentum he already has.
***
J.T. Young is the author of the new book, Unprecedented Assault: How Big Government Unleashed America’s Socialist Left, from RealClear Publishing, and has over three decades’ experience working in Congress, Department of Treasury, and OMB, and representing a Fortune 20 company.