The Sun Just Hit a Turning Point—Experts Warn It Could Trigger Decades of Solar Storms and Global Disruptions

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A rarely observed solar pattern—known as the Centennial Gleissberg Cycle (CGC)—may have just “restarted,” according to scientists monitoring long-term solar trends. If confirmed, this transition could mark the beginning of decades of intensified solar activity, with potentially serious implications for satellites, astronauts, and space-based infrastructure on Earth.

The insight comes from a new study analyzing proton flux measurements gathered by NOAA satellites, which indicate that the sun is entering a more extreme phase of activity. As reported by Live Science, and outlined in research recently published in the journal Space Weatherby the American Geophysical Union, the data suggest that Earth may have just passed through a CGC minimum—setting the stage for stronger and longer-lasting space weather events in the years ahead.

Understanding the Centennial Gleissberg Cycle

Unlike the familiar 11-year sunspot cycle, the CGC spans 80 to 100 years and is believed to regulate broader shifts in the sun’s magnetic behavior. These longer-term changes have a direct influence on solar flares, coronal mass ejections (CMEs), and geomagnetic storms—phenomena that can disrupt communication systems, power grids, and GPS satellites.

Lead author Kalvyn Adams explained that the key to detecting this solar transition lies in the South Atlantic Anomaly (SAA)—a region where Earth’s magnetic field is unusually weak. “The SAA is a region where the Earth’s magnetic field is weak and allows trapped protons to reach lower altitudes,” Adams noted. This unique weakness lets NOAA spacecraft effectively “see into” the inner radiation belt without flying directly through it—an approach that would otherwise be technically hazardous. “Which would be extremely tricky,” Adams added.

By analyzing years of proton flux data—a proxy for solar energetic particle activity—the researchers identified a recent drop that they interpret as the end of the CGC minimum. “We just passed the CGC minimum, and it will be another 40 to 50 years before the CGC maximum,” Adams told Live Science. Based on that timeline, the next peak is likely to occur during Solar Cycle 28.

What’s at Stake in the Next Solar Surge

If the CGC is indeed entering an active phase, the consequences could be long-lasting. In addition to increased drag on satellites, more frequent solar storms could result in GPS disruptions, radio blackouts, and damage to power infrastructure on Earth. This risk is especially concerning given the rapid rise in private satellite megaconstellations, many of which may not be designed with long-term solar variability in mind.

“Most [private] satellites usually take into account a model of the space climate when they are being made,” Adams noted. But, he added, they “are not considering the long-term variations that we are seeing.” With Solar Cycle 25 already showing signs of higher-than-expected activity, the need for forward-looking space weather modeling has become more urgent than ever.

Not Everyone Is Convinced

Despite the intriguing evidence, the study has sparked debate within the space weather research community. Some scientists argue that the Centennial Gleissberg Cycle remains poorly understood, and its precise influence on solar dynamics is still under investigation.

Scott McIntosh, a solar physicist at Lynker Space who previously helped accurately forecast Solar Cycle 25, expressed caution about the conclusions. According to McIntosh, the observed dip in proton flux could be a temporary fluctuation rather than a definitive sign of a new CGC phase. “One year of data doesn’t make a trend,” he noted, emphasizing the need for multi-year monitoring to validate whether the CGC is truly turning over.

Another key challenge is the limited historical data. Because satellites have only been able to track proton flux accurately for about 30 to 40 years, researchers lack a comprehensive record to compare across multiple CGC cycles. This makes it difficult to establish clear baselines or fully understand how the CGC interacts with other known cycles, such as the 11-year sunspot cycle and the Hale magnetic cycle.